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Youtube vid: Evolution is a blind watchmaker, by Jeff_UK2008-03-29 05:03:58
  Interesting by imrambi2008-03-29 06:47:16
    They are much less likely to appear by Jeff_UK 2008-03-29 07:17:24
than the non-transitional stages.

I don't think it's hard to believe at all, fossilisation is very unlikely, therefore the fossilisation of something that lived for a relatively short time is relatively less likely.

quite easy to believe :)

"HOW LIKELY IS IT FOR AN ORGANISM TO BECOME PRESERVED AS A FOSSIL?" near the bottom..

PS. life has only existed on earth for roughly 3700 million years, and the first multi-cellular organisms only developed something like 1200 million years ago... before then the liklihood of fossilisation was even more minute so your calculations are a bit off.
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