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Since we are almost in a recession by imrambi2008-03-20 11:48:51
  It's not a recession, it's just prices going up by murphoid2008-03-20 12:05:36
    Do you know the technical definition by merlin2008-03-20 12:20:47
      OECD growth forecast is at 0%. by CynicalRyan 2008-03-20 12:25:58
(Linky
Not exactly a contraction (not far from it, but it is not yet a contraction).

Whether or not this whole bruhaha becomes a recession, depends on if, and how, the US financial system crashes. But that doesn't seem likely (of course, there might be some surprises hiding in balance sheets...).

N.B.: The crash I pointed out is not the only thing that can cause a recession, but it is, IMO, the most brittle part of the US economy.
[ Reply ]
        And as I pointed out in another post, by merlin2008-03-20 12:31:27
          Ah, forecasts. by Didactylos2008-03-20 12:34:59
            Huh? Where did I ever mention forecasts? by merlin2008-03-20 12:36:42
              CynicalRyan was going on about them. by Didactylos2008-03-20 12:41:44
                Then provide proof that they aren't relevant. (n/t by CynicalRyan2008-03-20 12:43:30
          The simplest definition of recession by CynicalRyan2008-03-20 12:42:53
            Here's the official definition, from the NBER by merlin2008-03-20 12:46:52
              Close, but not quite: by CynicalRyan2008-03-20 12:58:06

 

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